Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Will Israel Bomb Iran?

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The BBC showed a really amazing program last night looking into this question in depth. If you missed it you can watch it from the internet at this link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/this_world/default.stm
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In the 60's and 70's I was anti-war. My degree is in Political Science, and I was active in various ways to try and stop the Vietnam war. I am not some kind of right wing dinosaur even all these years later. Even with a grey beard I still have compassion. For poor folks, for down-trodden people, for people whose skin is of a different color or who are religious.
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Talking instead of fighting is almost always a very wise thing to do. Internationl organizations like the UN are a big step forward. Especially if they are taken seriously. It would not be wise to let the UN degenerate further into a debating society.
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But I have mixed feelings about the current situation.
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Saddam Hussein was for sure the worst environmental criminal of the 20th century for igniting all the Kuwaiti oil wells.
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Ben's Comments: "Saddam Hussein also destroyed one of the last pristine wetland areas. The wetlands in southern Iraq, in the fertile crescent, are speculated by some to have been the inspiration for the garden of eden. Despite the war, there have been good efforts to reestablish the wetlands. As well as being environmentally responsible, the efforts have given the marsh arabs their livelyhood back."
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He invaded Iran, and then he invaded Kuwait. He killed thousands of his own people with poison gas. Talk about one first class human rights violator. This guy gets the prize.
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Shimon Perez is a nice, gentle, mellow old man. He describes him as the worst dictator since Stalin and Hitler. This description seems accurate if somewhat understated to me.
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The Nuremberg trials at the end of WWII were well done by some very intelligent people who cared a great deal about world peace. The trial in Iraq seems pretty unprofessional by comparision.
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The prospect of continued nuclear proliferation seems likely to continue. India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea, the French, Brits, Americans, Russians, Chinese, etc. It will probably even accelerate unless our best and brightest put some serious effort into it. And then in a few years some suicidal, lunatic, religious-political terrorist group will no doubt get their own wee little nuke and use it. Just like the psychopath Ossama enjoyed knocking down the world trade center in NY. Iatollas with atomic bombs. And maybe someone else will then retaliate against them by using their own nuke(s).
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This is not just some kind of scare tactics, it really could happen. In fact it no longer seems all that far fetched.
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Iran is a major country. It has a great people with a long history and lots of natural resources. And it is the only member of the UN which is openly calling for the genocide and complete and total destruction of another member of the UN.
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I just don't believe that the problem has been caused by McDonalds, big fuel inefficient SUVs, or Global Warming. Or that the problem will go away if the U.S. leaves Iraq and Afghanistan, and when George Bush is no longer president. That is a nice, comfortable, simplistic view but the situation is actually far more complicated than that.
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It does somewhat involve the necessity to greatly raise the standard of living of the poor folks in Africa (including the Arabs in North Africa), India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Central and South America, etc. This of course means lowering somewhat the financial standard of living of Europe and America and the oil-rich middle East. Fat chance huh? This also leads one to the problem of governmental corruption in many of these poor countries. Education is critical, as are the rights of women and human rights in general. And really elementary things like running water, sewage systems, starvation, and universal health care even for poor folks (listen up America).
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Unfortunately one cannot completely deal with this situation entirely rationally. It seemed like the Reformation and the Rennaisance permanently put reason in the driver's seat. But now in parts of the world we again have the delusion of "faith" and religion gaining the upper hand. Religious leaders encouraging violence. And even using their religions to get their followers to kill people by committing suicide. Totally fucking sick. Really.
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I hate war. One of my specialties the last few years has been visiting WWI and WWII battle sites and cemeteries here in Europe. War is terrible and there just isn't much one can say about it that is good. But that doesn't mean that I am a pacifist.
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It is a real shame, but there are times when one has to be strong and stand up to stop evil or bullying. Hitler, Musolini, and Stalin are good examples. Slavery and the way blacks were treated primarly in the South after the civil war. The taliban. Drug barons.
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I admire Ghandi a lot. Same with the carpenter from Nazareth and Martin Luther King. And Robin Hood (even though most of what he did was mythical). Studying animals, especially Chimps and Bonobos one realizes that we really are not all that different from them. And that distasteful as it may be sometimes one has to stand up for what one believes in, what is right and decent, even if that means fighting and maybe even dying.
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I really haven't fully figured out the solution, but I do know for sure that appeasement or just laying down and letting these guys walk all over us (or bomb us) is not the most effective long term solution.
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Comments from my buddy in Northern California:
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Communication and education would take a load off the world's pressure cooker. Dictators like Saddam Hussein and Kim Jong Il are, like the people they squat over, isolated from the world's mainstream and I think really lose touch with commonly accepted ambient reality. They grow up and are groomed for power in a bubble. I guess they don't know they live in a dream world that is incompatible with the things going on beyond the border. I think this is plain to see when you listen the their ambassadors who espouse almost cult like, repetitious dribble about their dear leader. Remember Turik saying everything was under control and there is no invasion as air and sea launched cruise missiles were were gently touching down in the background? Pay no attention to the explosions and chaos in the streets. It's all under control. The great and powerful Saddam has spoken. Gotta go.
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By way of technology, outside news dribbles in and keeps a spark of doubt alive on the inside. I'm beginning to suspect that Il set off a gazillion sticks of dynamite instead of a real nuke. I guess it's back to containment, hopefully with at least regional, if not world support. Ahh, the responsibilities of being sheriff. I don't know what will happen. I used to think the Soviets were crazy and about to launch - had bad dreams of seeing Biggs Air Force Base sizzling under the desert bloom of a mushroom from my parents' backyard. I guess it turns out we were that close only once. What would happen if Israel took out Iran's production facilities and the US or Japan took out Nkorea's? What would happen if Bush staves off a draft by recycling reserve and guard troops so that the next president has no choice but to reinstate it? News at six.
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